From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”