🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year backed the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.